MHEWC-III: Hands-on event: Innovation: the next generation of forecasting and warning systems

Session objectives

Hazards forecasting and warnings are a crucial element of understanding and managing systemic, cascading and compounding risk. Significant advances in the technology of observation and data management have created enormous opportunities in terms of complex modelling for hazard forecasting and risk assessment. However, these types of data and research advancement are often not incorporated in the operational services domain. In addition, operational ocean monitoring and forecasting systems (e.g. AI or Ml based forecasts) and tools (e.g. 3D printers to use weather station) with specific applications (e.g. heat waves, oil spills etc) are limited to few centres and countries. This is seen as the big scientific, innovation and capacity challenge to address. Furthermore, within the operational domain, many of the forecast and risk information services that are in use are not being translated for community application to covert risk information into risk management at local level reduce. As climate change increasingly poses a threat to resilience and other sustainable development goals, a change in mindset in early warning system and disaster risk reduction is required to link emerging technology with operational implementation and society. Addressing complex mechanisms and sources that trigger hazards (e.g 15 January Tonga volcanic eruption and tsunami) also underlines the challenge and opportunities of the next generation of forecasting and warning systems.   This calls for people centred, collaborative co-design and co-production combined with harnessing advances in science, technology and engineering solutions. It could accelerate proactive scenario based pre and post disaster risk assessments based on multi-hazard forecasting and warning information, which when developed through engaging multiple stakeholders will ensure that early warning and risk information is useful, usable and used.