This is a hands on interactive learning event focused on Impact-based forecasts and Forecast-based financing. 

Session objectives

The main objective of this session is to create a space for sharing learning, exchanging experiences and building partnerships around impact-based forecasting and anticipatory action. Hydro-meteorological agencies have developed considerable expertise and capacity in providing hydrometeorological forecast and warning services. Complementing these efforts, other organizations are incorporating concepts of vulnerability and exposure which can be used to develop impact-based forecasts that can trigger early or anticipatory action by disaster managers, humanitarian actors and communities at-risk. Over the past 8 years the humanitarian community (Red Cross Red Crescent, UN agencies, NGOs) has gained extensive experience implementing Forecast-based Financing/anticipatory action programmes, alongside government agencies and scientific partners. Such experiences demonstrate the value of investing resources in the development of partnerships with defined roles, responsibilities, and accountability structures to co-develop frameworks that enable early action by communities at risk. 

The session will highlight national-level impact-based forecasting and anticipatory action journeys through the lens of practitioners and government representatives. Experiences will be shared on multi-stakeholder collaboration, partnership building and co-creation, for example, joint trigger development, data sharing agreements, simulation exercises and training. An interactive discussion will follow to collect wider experiences of participants and facilitate exchange around specific challenges or needs.  

Participants will then be asked to share their needs for continued knowledge exchange, learning and guidance around enabling impact-based forecasting and anticipatory action to generate an initial Action Plan for the Anticipation Hub and supporting partners.  

Expected Outcomes

• Collect experiences and lessons on what worked well and not so well along different practitioner and government journeys towards impact-based forecasting and anticipatory action. 

• Facilitate connections and inspire new partnerships to advance impact-based forecasting and anticipatory action at country and regional level.  

• Collect a wishlist on how the Anticipation Hub, WMO, and other partners can facilitate continued exchange around impact-based forecasting and anticipatory action to meet the needs of hydro-met and government actors.  

Agenda

• Welcome and Introductions - What is Anticipatory Action and Impact Based Forecasting? Where are the synergies? 
• Part 1: Journeys on Impact Based Forecasting and Anticipatory Action from Africa - Uganda and Burkina Faso 
• Part 2: Journeys on Impact Based Forecasting and Anticipatory Action in Asia - Nepal and Bangladeesh
• World Cafe group discussion
  • Discussion question: What can you learn from this case study to apply in your content? Do you expect similar challenges/ opportunities? Have you similar/ different experiences of FBF / IBF in the region? 
  • Discussion question: What is needed (training, knowledge sharing, advocacy) to speed up your IBF / AA journey? 
• Plenary discussion and Feedback
• Next Steps and Action Plan
• Wrap up

This presentation discusses a Vulnerability Index that gesticulates a common approach at the global level while supporting regional and country-level vulnerability efforts by governments and the UN. To date there is a UNDP Multidimensional Vulnerability Index developed for Small Island States. It offers guidance for discussion which could inform other UN regions—perhaps aiding in the development of regional Vulnerability Indexes. A regional approach would recognise the different levels of development and the geographical challenges of those countries. From there, a Global Vulnerability Index could be aggregated from common elements within the regional Indexes.

Some of the questions highlighted in this presentation are: What would be the dimensions of vulnerability that should be considered? How can a process ensure that all the vulnerable groups are included in developing such Indexes? What data sources do we have? What ones might we need? How can benchmarking help countries to share their approaches and learn from each other? How can this help identify policies and approaches that can build resilience in communities and in vulnerable groups?

This presentation explains the concept and benefits of a disaster preparedness plan. Caritas Indonesia and Caritas Bogor promoted this planning in order to raise the DRR awareness of 700 families in the Sumur District of Pandeglang, Banten. These areas were affected by a tsunami that was caused by volcanic flank failures of Mount Anak Krakatau. This presentation will highlight how the families who participated in the disaster preparedness planning were able to evacuate themselves and also warn their neighbours.

This presentation shares lessons learned from a cross-border disaster-displacement simulation exercise held at the end of March 2022 between Colombia and Ecuador. This government-led, multi-stakeholder exercise simulates the displacement of a number of persons in a border area. The aim is to develop and test Standard Operating Procedures that assign roles and responsibilities to responders from National Disaster Management Offices (NDMOs), Migration Authorities, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Local Authorities, Civil Protection, the Red Cross, civil society and others to improve preparedness, emergency procedures, contingency plans and response mechanisms in the event of a disaster. This case study builds on the methodology developed in a similar exercise on the Panama-Costa Rica border in 2017. It can serve as a model for other countries across the world wishing to explore cooperation and to set up mechanisms to deal effectively with cross-border displacement in the context of disasters.

Through its researches on the characteristics of resilient communities, the indicators contributing to them and the available measurement methodologies, IFRC has recently developed the “Community Resilience Measurement Dashboard” (CRMD), a practical tool to help measure community resilience.

The CRMD helps us measure community resilience by using the three tools: 1) Resilience Star (a tool to measure community resilience through discussion by a group of people, based on the data collected through the Enhanced Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (EVCA) and other available community assessment tools); 2) Resilience Scan (a tool to measure community resilience through key informant interviews with local experts and review of secondary information); 3) Resilience Radar (a tool to assess and illustrate the resilience level of one or several communities through a standard survey).

The CRMD measures resilience by using relevant indicators per each of the 11 resilience dimensions - disaster risk management, health, water and sanitation, shelter, food and nutrition security, social cohesion, inclusion, economic opportunities, infrastructure and services, natural resource management and connectedness.

The CRMD allows users to generate their own measurement tools as per their needs, collect and analyze the data, and show the levels of community resilience through spider webs. Users can track and monitor the progress and effectiveness of resilience programs overtime through the base-line, mid-line and end-line resilience measurements, share and compare these results and modify their programs as needed. The CRMD has been tested in communities supported by RCRC National Societies and received positive feedback from its users. The proposed session contributes to the Priority 1 of the SFDRR and is linked to the GPDRR 2022’s cross-cutting theme of “accelerating and integrating disaster risk management to sustainable development and climate action”. The session will demonstrate the added value of the CRMD and present how to use it.

Choe is a Coordinator for DRR and Resilience Tools and Approaches of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. He has over 30 years’ experience of working for the RCRC movement. He worked for the Red Cross Society of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea as a Deputy Secretary General and for the IFRC country offices in Georgia, Armenia, Iran and Myanmar as DRR coordinator, Programme Coordinator, Recovery Coordinator and Head of Delegation. Since 2011 he has worked at the IFRC Secretariat as a focal person for DRR and resilience. The areas of his expertise include disaster and crisis management, DRR, community resilience and organizational development. He holds a master’s degree in international relations and a bachelor’s degree in Asian History.

This speech will look at some of the benefits of working in partnership across the Pacific to better deliver community-driven DRR and preparedness programming. The Australian Humanitarian Partnership (AHP) is a partnership between the Australian Government’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and six Australian NGOs. Disaster READY is a disaster preparedness and resilience program implemented by AHP partners and their local networks in Fiji, Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, and Timor-Leste. On behalf of Disaster READY and its partners, Josefa Lalabalavu, Plan International’s Pacific DRM Manager, reflects on some of the successes and challenges of the past four years. He discusses how a strengthened partnership between humanitarian practitioners better supports locally-led responses, which ultimately gives vulnerable communities the tools they need to prepare for and mitigate against disaster.

This Ignite Stage session will highlight the challenge of preparing people for unprecedented hazards, the frequency of which is increasing as the climate changes. Using a selection of the disasters that followed such extreme events in 2021, lessons learnt in the WMO/WWRP HIWeather project and collected together in the new book, “Towards the Perfect Warning” will be highlighted to show that effective early warnings can prepare people to respond to situations beyond their experience.

Professor Brian Golding is Fellow in Weather Impacts at the Met Office, visiting professor at Bristol University and co-chair of the World Meteorological Organisation’s High Impact Weather project. Brian’s research has spanned numerical modelling, data assimilation, nowcasting, flood and ocean wave prediction, interactive forecaster graphics, and weather impacts in aviation, road maintenance and health. From 2005-2012 he was Deputy Director of Weather Science at the Met Office. He was awarded the OBE for services to weather forecasting and the prediction of hazardous weather.

This side event follows the session on Nature-based Solutions on the morning of the 26th of May. It will look cross-thematically at the Global Platform’s themes and address how Nature-based solutions can contribute to the implementation of the Sendai Framework 2015-2030 and what is still needed at country level. It will also look at what is needed beyond the current framework.

Afghanistan is one of worst natural disaster prone countries in the world. Being a highly mountainous country located in the Himalayan Hindukush mountain region, it is affected by natural disasters such as Earthquake, Flood, Drought and Extreme weather conditions. With over 30 years of conflict, the country lacks infrastructure and capacity to tackle impacts of these natural disasters. Afghanaid leads a group of International NGOs operating in Afghanistan to form a consortium called, the Afghanistan Resilience Consortium or ARC to support Afghan communities fight natural disasters and climate change.

Between 2015 and 2019, ARC implemented a 16m GBP project on Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction (CBDRR) in 705 communities in Afghanistan. Between 2019 - 2021, ARC implemented a 10m GBP project on Ecosystem Based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR) in 245 communities, where it used ecosystem restoration and soil-water conservation as its main methodologies. This work not only reduced disaster risk from flash floods, but also improved climate adaptation against drought in a degraded mountain ecosystem like Afghanistan. This short presentation, “Source of Hope (Climate Resilience in Afghanistan)” documents this project.

The COVID-19 pandemic along with concurrent emergencies, has exposed vulnerabilities and caused disruptions to health services in even the most robust health systems. Health facilities need to maintain maximum capacity of their services and functions during and immediately after major emergencies and disasters to ensure continuity of healthcare service provision and avoid excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among vulnerable populations.To do so, safe and resilient health facilities need to institute systems, procedures and capacities that address prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. In the response to the needs that emerged during COVID-19, several new tools were rapidly developed that complemented existing tools and built on the experience and lessons from the pandemic response and other emergencies. Country and hospital experience effective strategies to ensure uninterrupted health service delivery during emergencies and new tools will be shared and discussed.

Session objectives