This is a hands on interactive learning event focused on Impact-based forecasts and Forecast-based financing. 

Session objectives

The main objective of this session is to create a space for sharing learning, exchanging experiences and building partnerships around impact-based forecasting and anticipatory action. Hydro-meteorological agencies have developed considerable expertise and capacity in providing hydrometeorological forecast and warning services. Complementing these efforts, other organizations are incorporating concepts of vulnerability and exposure which can be used to develop impact-based forecasts that can trigger early or anticipatory action by disaster managers, humanitarian actors and communities at-risk. Over the past 8 years the humanitarian community (Red Cross Red Crescent, UN agencies, NGOs) has gained extensive experience implementing Forecast-based Financing/anticipatory action programmes, alongside government agencies and scientific partners. Such experiences demonstrate the value of investing resources in the development of partnerships with defined roles, responsibilities, and accountability structures to co-develop frameworks that enable early action by communities at risk. 

The session will highlight national-level impact-based forecasting and anticipatory action journeys through the lens of practitioners and government representatives. Experiences will be shared on multi-stakeholder collaboration, partnership building and co-creation, for example, joint trigger development, data sharing agreements, simulation exercises and training. An interactive discussion will follow to collect wider experiences of participants and facilitate exchange around specific challenges or needs.  

Participants will then be asked to share their needs for continued knowledge exchange, learning and guidance around enabling impact-based forecasting and anticipatory action to generate an initial Action Plan for the Anticipation Hub and supporting partners.  

Expected Outcomes

• Collect experiences and lessons on what worked well and not so well along different practitioner and government journeys towards impact-based forecasting and anticipatory action. 

• Facilitate connections and inspire new partnerships to advance impact-based forecasting and anticipatory action at country and regional level.  

• Collect a wishlist on how the Anticipation Hub, WMO, and other partners can facilitate continued exchange around impact-based forecasting and anticipatory action to meet the needs of hydro-met and government actors.  

Agenda

• Welcome and Introductions - What is Anticipatory Action and Impact Based Forecasting? Where are the synergies? 
• Part 1: Journeys on Impact Based Forecasting and Anticipatory Action from Africa - Uganda and Burkina Faso 
• Part 2: Journeys on Impact Based Forecasting and Anticipatory Action in Asia - Nepal and Bangladeesh
• World Cafe group discussion
  • Discussion question: What can you learn from this case study to apply in your content? Do you expect similar challenges/ opportunities? Have you similar/ different experiences of FBF / IBF in the region? 
  • Discussion question: What is needed (training, knowledge sharing, advocacy) to speed up your IBF / AA journey? 
• Plenary discussion and Feedback
• Next Steps and Action Plan
• Wrap up

This presentation discusses a Vulnerability Index that gesticulates a common approach at the global level while supporting regional and country-level vulnerability efforts by governments and the UN. To date there is a UNDP Multidimensional Vulnerability Index developed for Small Island States. It offers guidance for discussion which could inform other UN regions—perhaps aiding in the development of regional Vulnerability Indexes. A regional approach would recognise the different levels of development and the geographical challenges of those countries. From there, a Global Vulnerability Index could be aggregated from common elements within the regional Indexes.

Some of the questions highlighted in this presentation are: What would be the dimensions of vulnerability that should be considered? How can a process ensure that all the vulnerable groups are included in developing such Indexes? What data sources do we have? What ones might we need? How can benchmarking help countries to share their approaches and learn from each other? How can this help identify policies and approaches that can build resilience in communities and in vulnerable groups?

U-INSPIRE Indonesia is a platform for youth, young scientists, and young professionals working in the fields of Science, Engineering, Technology, and Innovation (SETI) to support disaster risk reduction and build resilience in line with the SDGs and SFDRR. U-INSPIRE was formed as a platform for youth and young professionals (YYPs) in Indonesia who come from different disciplines but share the same vision of building resilience through SETI. Share in the story of how the spirit of YYPs in Indonesia through U-INSPIRE Indonesia has contributed to building resilience and influenced YYPs in other countries in the Asia Pacific and Africa to take action!

This presentation shares lessons learned from a cross-border disaster-displacement simulation exercise held at the end of March 2022 between Colombia and Ecuador. This government-led, multi-stakeholder exercise simulates the displacement of a number of persons in a border area. The aim is to develop and test Standard Operating Procedures that assign roles and responsibilities to responders from National Disaster Management Offices (NDMOs), Migration Authorities, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Local Authorities, Civil Protection, the Red Cross, civil society and others to improve preparedness, emergency procedures, contingency plans and response mechanisms in the event of a disaster. This case study builds on the methodology developed in a similar exercise on the Panama-Costa Rica border in 2017. It can serve as a model for other countries across the world wishing to explore cooperation and to set up mechanisms to deal effectively with cross-border displacement in the context of disasters.

The City of Sendai sustained serious damage from the Great East Japan Earthquake disaster, which occurred on March 11, 2011. A lesson learned from the disaster was that the power of nature is uncontrollable. Therefore, the City of Sendai are pursuing efforts in human capacity building that supports community disaster management that local governments and communities can engage in as DRR. This presentation introduces a part of these actions. It is hoped that these actions are able to help in many places and enable communities to engage in DRR to develop and enhance their overall resilience.

In Indonesia, a 2016 flash flood occurred in Cimanuk Watershed, Garut District, resulting in more than 2,525 people being displaced. Research shows how relocation affects community resilience in the ten relocation sites in Garut, Indonesia, by assessing the risk perception. This research proposed Urban Living Labs (ULL) as an innovative approach to address the gap and contribute to long-term sustainability by actively co-constructing durable solutions for the displacement issue. This ULL is expected to mainstream the measures to establish a durable solution to the displacement issue.

If we are serious about multi-hazard early warning systems, we need to address shortcomings in our global structures, for example with volcanoes. Volcanoes produce many different natural hazards that cross-disciplines and borders. Unlike in hydrometeorology, which has the World Meteorological Organization with clear responsibility for international coordination, there is no UN treaty level organization tasked to assist the world’s volcano observatories in running a globally coordinated system. This is a fixable problem and addressing it would provide great benefits.

Session objectives

1. Review global trends in extreme events and implications for cascading risk
2. "Take stock" of progress in the implementation of Target G of the Sendai Framework and review gaps
3. Report on latest trends in MHEWS and early action design, results, and impact and share knowledge, lessons learned, and emerging examples of good practices

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030

The Sendai Framework was adopted by 187 Member States at the Forth United (UN) World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai, Japan, on March 18, 2015 “to achieve the substantial reduction of disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in the economic, physical, social, cultural and environmental assets of persons, businesses, communities and countries over the next 15 years”.  

The Sendai Framework puts forward seven global targets including Target G: Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to people by 2030. 

While considerable progress has been made, for example, in terms of information and communication technology access and use, many challenges remain including reaching the “last mile”. It is estimated a third of people globally – mostly in developing countries – are still not covered by EWSs.  Integrating early warning systems into coherent multi-sector and multi-hazard risk governance and reaching all exposed and vulnerable populations in many countries remains a challenge. 

Seven years into the  implementation of  the  Framework, the  Disaster Risk Reduction community has an excellent opportunity to take stock of where we are, what we have accomplished, what we have learned, and to jointly explore how we can collectively transform our engagement  to  accelerate progress in achieving the Framework’s ambitions.  Moreover, the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, has tasked the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to lead an effort in collaboration with other UN agencies to address the gap in early warning access and present an action plan by 27th  Conference of the Parties (COP 27) to the UNFCCC in November 2022, to achieve the goal that Early Warning Systems protecting everyone within five years . 

The mid-point of Sendai Framework implementation marks a time of increased global urgency. Disasters strike at an unprecedented rate, with the most recent decade experiencing an over three-fold increase in the frequency of disaster occurrence, compared to the 1980s. Disasters are also becoming more costly, disrupting critical services and economic activities, setting back the global economy by an average of USD 170 billion every year.   

Agenda

Panel 1: Speakers from different regions will share progress, challenges and solutions

Panel 2: Good practice examples of EWS to enable action, and remaining challenges and solutions.

Concluding session: Stocktake on progress on ensuring early warning is accessible and for Sendai Framework Mid-Term Review.

Local governments are on the ‘frontline of opportunity’ to protect lives, livelihoods and their infrastructure assets and systems. The Local Leaders Forum will showcase how municipalities are using disaster risk management to strengthen resilience across various sectors and achieve progress against the SDGs. The Forum is organized by the Making Cities Resilient 2030 (MCR2030) global partnership which aims to Leave No Municipality Behind as they scale up their climate and disaster risk reduction action. MCR2030 has more than 1,000 member cities and municipalities as well as 200 service providers offering a range of tools and supports to local governments.
 

Session objectives

1. Capture practical experiences and learnings from local governments of ‘SDGs in Action’
2. Provide policy recommendations for local governments to scale up their progress towards the SDGs
3. Guide how the Making Cities Resilient 2030 (MCR2030) global partnership can better support local governments to be more inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable

This presentation shares findings from a policy review that shows the connections between disaster risk reduction and health, in existing policies at the regional and sub-regional levels in Asia and the Pacific. It also reviews how these policies address human rights and gender equality, which are drivers of vulnerability to both disaster and health risks, at the intersection of the two arenas. While policies have increasingly interwoven health and disaster risk reduction, most miss human rights and gender issues in this interlocking policy nexus.